Sales of Japan's semiconductor manufacturing equipment in the fiscal year 2024 are projected to reach 4.035 trillion yen (U$27.5 billion). This reflects a substantial 27% increase from fiscal year 2023, marking the first time sales have surpassed the ¥4 trillion mark. 

Jan 19, 2024 - The Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) led by Chairman Toshiki Kawai, announced on the 18th that the forecast sets a new record, breaking a two-year trend. Capital investment in equipment is expected to rebound in the second half of the fiscal year, driven by improvements in semiconductor supply.

The fiscal year 2024 budget is anticipated to exceed the forecast announced in July 2023 (3.926 trillion yen) and surpass 4 trillion yen, achieving this milestone one year ahead of schedule. During a press conference, Chairman Kawai explained, "We anticipate a sustained strong demand in China, with the demand related to generative AI picking up at a pace faster than expected”. China's active investment in non-advanced semiconductors is projected to continue supporting the demand for semiconductor equipment, akin to FY2023. Moreover, the demand for semiconductors is expected to rise further due to the widespread adoption of generative AI. We hold the view that a situation requiring more units than anticipated will arise sooner than expected.

This trend appears to be driven by a growing appetite for investment, as the business performance of foundries and memory semiconductor manufacturers—key customers for semiconductor manufacturing equipment—seems to be bottoming out. 

Chairman Kawai stated, 'The demand for semiconductors in FY2024 will gradually pick up. The recovery in NAND flash may be delayed until near the end of the year, but even considering this, demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment is expected to expand. In FY2025, demand from domestic memory manufacturers and foundries expanding into Japan is likely to grow.'

"The forecast for fiscal 2023 is 3.117 trillion yen. Semiconductor demand has significantly decreased, influenced by the reaction to the special demand created by the coronavirus. There has been no change since July 2023, and it is anticipated that the year-on-year rate will remain negative, marking the first time in four years."

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Source: Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun